How to price a product so it makes money after ads
A price has to pay for the product, getting it to the customer, the payment, and the customer: the ads that brought them in. Shipping and the cost of getting the customer are paid once per order, so the more items in an order, the less each item has to carry.
Price per item = (items × product cost + shipping + cost per customer ÷ orders per customer) ÷ (items × (1 − discount) × ((1 − refunds) × (1 − target margin) − 3% fees))
The example the calculator opens with: a $30 product, $8 shipping, a $40 cost per customer, customers who order 1.5 times a year, 10% average discount and 5% refunds.
| Costs per order (1 item) | $30 + $8 + $40 ÷ 1.5 | $64.67 |
| Break-even price | 0% margin | $78.10 |
| Price for a 20% margin | what's left at scale | $98.43 |
| Price for a 40% margin | where to start | $133.06 |
| At $85, 1 item per order | margin | 8% |
| At $85, 1.3 items per order | margin | 19% |
Same price, same product. Getting the average order from 1 to 1.3 items (a bundle, a second item at a small discount, a free-shipping threshold) more than doubles the margin, because shipping and ads are paid once per order.
What profit margin should you aim for? Start at 40%
Here margin means what's left after product, shipping, payment fees, discounts, refunds and ads, before your team, apps and rent.
Start at 40%. When you scale, you spend more on ads and reach colder audiences, so each new customer costs more. Margin goes down. Brands that start at 40% usually end up around 20% at scale, which still pays the team and leaves profit. Brands that start at 20% often end up at zero.
With the example numbers, a 40% price ($133) keeps the margin above 20% until a customer costs about $74 instead of $40. That's how much room you have to grow your ad spend.
- Under 10%: thin. One bad month of ads and you're losing money.
- 20%: a healthy place to land once you've scaled.
- 40%: where to start, so there's room for your cost per customer to rise.
Why markup rules don't work for online stores
"Charge 2× or 3× your product cost" comes from retail, where the shop window brought the customers in. Online, you pay for every customer. A $40 cost per customer on an $85 order is almost half the price before you've paid for the product.
Should you raise your price?
Usually the answer is to test it. A 10% higher price on a thin margin can double the profit per order, so you can lose a lot of orders and still come out ahead. Then A/B test the higher price on part of your traffic and compare revenue per visitor.
- A real Shopify price increase A/B test and what happened
- How to increase average order value
- Marketing budget calculator: what a customer costs you and the ad budget you need
- Shopify profit calculator: your whole store's monthly P&L